Tracking fraudulent and questionable markets and "banned" US users on Polymarket.
Last update: Saturday, 22nd December 2024, 07:40:00 PM Eastern
| Name | Owner | Location | Market manipulation | Social |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben | 50-Pence | 🇺🇸 USA | ❌ | Discord: 50pence1826 |
| MMousse | 50-Pence | 🇺🇸 USA | ❌ | Discord: 50pence1826 |
| JustPunched | Domer | 🇺🇸 USA | ✔ | Discord: domah |
| TheGuru | TheGuru | 🇺🇸 USA | ❌ | N/A |
| aenews2 | aenews2 | 🇺🇸 USA | ✔ | Discord: aenews |
| Decap | Decap | 🇺🇸 USA | ✔ | Discord: decap |
| RememberAmalek | RememberAmalek | 🇺🇸 USA | ✔ | Discord: anotherfuckingdis1269, usella, RememberAmalek |
| Car | Car | 🇩🇪 Germany | ✔ | Discord: meowmemowmwow |
Users based in the United States of America are currently not allowed to access the Polymarket services. It has been observed that the users above were (recently) placed into close-only mode and afterwards continued trading on new or alternative accounts, avoiding the restrictions. Given the lack of action taken by Polymarket, it has to be assumed that Polymarket may be knowingly facilitating large users to trade on their platform, similar to how Binance used to.
| Market | Expected End | Resolved Outcome | Trigger | Description | References |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela Presidential Election Winner | Jul 28, 2024 | Edmundo González | UMA Voting | Wrong presidential election winner declared by fraudulent UMA vote | AP BBC |
| Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? | Sep 30, 2024 | NO | UMA Voting | Incorrect vote against credible reporting and media consensus; several Top Users engaging in pump & dump schemes and purposefully sharing misleading information | CNN BBC |
| Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? | Dec 31, 2024 | NO (implied through P4) | UMA Voting | Fraudulent vote declares entire Syria as part of "Golan Heights"; Required clarification from Polymarket and later correctly settled; several Top Users engaging in pump & dump schemes and purposefully sharing misleading information | Wikipedia |
| Will there be a US Government shutdown? | Dec 31, 2024 | YES | Polymarket Clarification | Market opened months ago; rules changed 2 weeks before expiration with unspecified timeline; contradictory individual rules (shutdown was averted, hence market should resolve "No"); market abused by several of the Top Users listed above; incorrect clarification by Polymarket to profit Top Users at expense of correct market resolution | Reuters NBC |
This list is currently being extended as research on other markets is underway. It can be reasonably assumed that on all the markets above, countless (new) users have lost substantial amounts of money, with several of the above Top Users turning substantial profits on their costs. While there is no proof at this time, there is reason to suspect that these accounts coordinate and/or have inside information to the UMA voting process and/or Polymarket clarifications. It can be further stated that the rules of Will there be a US Government shutdown? are intentionally misleading and not clear on which deadlines are relevant for the resolution of this market, whereas every indication states that the market should resolve to Yes, such as that there is an actually occuring government shutdown before 2025.
Polymarket should consider refunding users impacted by these fraudulent markets and/or consider the 50/50 resolution where applicable. Failure to take action will lead to a continuing trend of disputed markets, enriching a small amount of large users at the cost of many new users. This might be something the CTFC and/or the FBI should be aware of and looking into A.S.A.P.